Tee Time: 2024 Masters
Some storylines heading into the year's first men's major, with notes on Scheffler, Rahm, Koepka, McIlroy, Woods and others
Sit back, relax and enjoy the show, folks. It’s Masters week, and there are plenty of storylines as play gets going Thursday at Augusta National.
Obviously, Scottie Scheffler is the pre-tournament favorite. The 27-year-old has been beaten by one man (Stephan Jaeger, at the Texas Children’s Houston Open) in his last three PGA Tour starts, with wins at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and Players Championship.
But the world No. 1 is far from the only topic of conversation heading into the first men’s major of the season. Here some news and notes heading to the 88th Masters, including a pick to win.
How will Augusta play?
Firm and fast, hopefully. Augusta has gotten favorable weather recently, with a baked-out course greeting players this week. The winning score has been double-digits under par six years running — a tournament record. Those of us that love seeing players get tested — whether it’s with run-outs off the tee or coming into, and putting on, bouncy greens — were excited this week until we saw the weather forecast for Thursday, which calls for heavy rainfall and wind gusts up to 40-45 mph in the morning.
If Augusta somehow catches a break, then we are in for a week of ideal conditions; forecasts for Friday, Saturday and Sunday promise no rainfall.
“I was hitting 5-irons that were coming into par-5s that were bouncing, tomahawking over the green, and I was like this is pretty cool,” Xander Schauffele told reporters Monday. “It's been a while.”
It sure has been. Jordan Spieth told reporters Tuesday that the course was “really firm” in 2014, 2016, 2017 and 2018. Since then, from the November Masters in 2020 to last year’s utter deluge on Saturday, Augusta has not consistently been the firm and fast test that members, players and fans truly enjoy. Here’s to hoping that changes the next four days.
Will Scottie Scheffler join the two-jacket club?
He certainly can. Scheffler enters Augusta on an extended run of form that rivals (and perhaps exceeds) the best stretches of the post-Tiger era. Since February of 2022, he has eight PGA Tour wins, including his lone major at the 2022 Masters.
Per Data Golf, over the last three months, Scheffler is gaining 3.21 strokes per round with his ball striking alone, easily the best in the world; the gap between he and second-place Xander Schauffele (whose +2.29 strokes gained: tee to green is 0.92 shots behind Scheffler) is greater than the gap between Schauffele and the 17th-best ball striker in the world, Akshay Bhatia (+1.30) over that time frame. His consistency is just silly.
He also has the perfect mindset for Augusta, seen in his win in 2022 and tie for 10th last year (despite losing 1.16 strokes around the green, per Data Golf). He’s disciplined, misses in the right spots and knows when to attack — and when to back off. Add in an ability to get up and down from seemingly anywhere, and you’ve got someone who should contend at Augusta for the next 15 years.
“You have to stay so patient and trust in all aspects of your game because there is a certain type of player that can play well on this golf course, but at the end of the day you have to have trust in all aspects of your game,” Scheffler told reporters Tuesday.
If he wins, Scheffler would send a message. This is the Scottie era, and it’s past time to get acclimated.
How will Jon Rahm and Brooks Koepka fare after their duel last year?
If any two players are in the same tier as Scheffler coming into the week, it’s these two. Rahm overcame a four-shot deficit to Koepka in the 29-hole marathon Sunday last year, finishing four shots ahead of the American (who tied for second along with Phil Mickelson) to become the first European player to win the Masters and US Open.
When it comes to the majors, these two are as good as it gets — Koepka has won five majors (three PGAs, two US Opens) since 2017, and Rahm, in addition to his two majors, has ten other top-10 finishes since 2018.
Now playing on LIV Golf, the two are looking to add their already huge legacies. If Koepka wins, he’d nab the third leg of the career Grand Slam, and tie Mickelson, Nick Faldo and Lee Trevino with six majors. If Rahm wins, he’d become the first repeat champion at Augusta since Tiger Woods went back-to-back in 2001 and 2002.
“There's 19 other people in front of me, I do know that,” a smirking Koepka told reporters Tuesday, referencing his spot on the all-time men’s majors ranking. He may not have a top 10 on LIV since the February season-opener at Mayakoba, but don’t be fooled, there’s no one that can turn it on in the biggest events like Brooks.
As for Rahm, he spent much of his Tuesday presser talking about the state of the game, and not the state of his game. His decision to join LIV in December, after all, represented a major shift from his previous attitudes towards the circuit and a significant development as the PGA Tour and Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF) — the financial backer of LIV — negotiate an agreement to unify a fractured sport.
But all that will go away come Thursday, when Rahm will start his title defense. Do you really want to bet against him?
Will a relaxed approach pay off for Rory McIlroy?
Can you believe that this is Rory’s 10th shot at the career Grand Slam? His first chance in 2015 came when I was in eighth grade. I’m 23 now.
The four-time major champion has tried a variety of strategies to get himself ready for the opening tee shot Thursday. This time around, he played two practice rounds at Augusta last week, finished third at the Valero Texas Open over the weekend, went back home to Florida and then arrived at Augusta Tuesday morning — and promptly breezed through his pre-tournament presser in just over 10 minutes.
“I play 25 weeks a year, and there's no point in doing anything different this week compared to other weeks,” he told reporters.
McIlroy has played in eight events to this point in 2024, winning the Dubai Desert Classic in January. He’s had enough competitive reps and he’s gotten enough looks at the golf course. If he gets off to a solid start (he hasn’t broken par in the opening round of the Masters since 2018), then it's all systems go for a run at becoming the sixth male golfer to complete the modern Slam — Gene Sarazen, Ben Hogan, Gary Player, Jack Nicklaus and Tiger Woods are the five in the club currently.
“No question, he'll do it at some point,” Woods told reporters Tuesday. “Rory's too talented, too good. He's going to be playing this event for a very long time. He'll get it done. It's just a matter of when.”
Do Tiger or Phil (or both) have one last run in them?
The two dominated this tournament in the late 90s and 2000s. From 1997-2010, Woods and Mickelson combined for seven Green Jackets, with Mickelson’s missed cut in 1997 the only time either finished outside the top 25.
They’ve each delivered a vintage performance at Augusta in recent years, with Woods winning in 2019 and Mickelson tying for second last year. But since his car accident in February of 2021, Woods, 48, has played 72 holes in an official PGA Tour event just once — his first event after the accident at the 2022 Masters. Mickelson, 53, has just two top-10 in LIV Golf events since that runner-up to Rahm last April.
Yet it’s hard not to convince yourself that these two can summon some old magic at Augusta.
On Tuesday, Woods said “if everything comes together, I think I can get one more.” That would require the course being fiery (putting an onus on experience) and for his body — specifically his right leg and back — to hold up over four days, a big ask.
As for Mickelson, he’s surely capable of a hot week; his distance, touch and feel are all still there. It just gets harder and harder to flip the switch as you age.
Just hoping that both make it to the weekend, a feat that would see Woods surpass Gary Player and Fred Couples for the most consecutive made cuts in Masters history (24), is much more reasonable. But we can always dream for more; after all, this is Augusta, and we are talking about Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson.
Other notes heading into the tournament
Spieth comes into the week in solid form — he’s 14th in the world over the last three months, according to Data Golf — but something just feels… missing. Maybe it’s the fact that he’s 98th on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: approach this season. Augusta always brings the best out of his creative, chaotic mind, though; Spieth has six top-10s in his first 10 Masters starts, including his incredible win in 2015. He is dealing with a flare-up of a nagging wrist injury, so it’s worth monitoring that as the week goes on.
A salute to broadcasting legend Verne Lundquist, who is calling his final Masters for CBS this year. Lundquist has been a longtime fixture in the 16th tower; who can forget his iconic call of Tiger’s 2005 chip-in? (In our lives, we still haven’t seen anything like that, Verne.) He also authored the famous “Yes, sir!” call of Jack Nicklaus’ birdie on the 17th hole in his stunning 1986 win. Lundquist retired from the SEC on CBS in 2016, March Madness in 2017 and the PGA Championship in 2021, so this is farewell to an incredible broadcasting career. Thanks for the memories, Verne.
9 of the last 13 Masters champions have been first-time major winners. Who fits the bill from that group this year? Schauffele (two prior close calls at Augusta, in 2019 and 2021) has had a lot of Masters success; he told reporters Tuesday that his iron play fits what Augusta asks of players. Then, it’s worth noting 2021 runner-up Will Zalatoris, who has five other top-10s in majors and Patrick Cantlay, who was in the penultimate group in last year’s final round and led briefly on the back-nine in 2019. Keep an eye on Joaquin Niemann (third in the world over the last three months, per Data Golf) and Ludvig Åberg, making his Masters debut after playing on the European Ryder Cup team last fall, as well.
Pick to win
Hideki Matsuyama. Over the last three months, the 2021 Masters champion is third in the world in strokes gained: tee to green and first in strokes gained: around the green, per Data Golf. He’s a premier iron player, knows his way around Augusta — eight top-20s (including the aforementioned win) in 12 Masters starts — and won earlier this season at Riviera, one of the PGA Tour’s most classic courses. At the age of 32, the Japan native joins the likes of Hogan, Tom Watson and Seve Ballesteros with his second Green Jacket.